Surveying U.S. and Taiwan Experts: What to Expect for Cross-Strait Dynamics in 2024 and Beyond

Please join the CSIS China Power Project on Monday, January 22 from 9:30 – 10:30 am EST for the roll-out of our new report Surveying the Experts: U.S. and Taiwan Views on China’s Approach to Taiwan in 2024 and beyond.

Years of simmering tensions across the Taiwan Strait have brought the prospect of a conflict into sharp relief. There is a risk of tensions rising in 2024 in the wake of Taiwan’s elections, in which the Democratic Progressive Party candidate William Lai won the presidency. To make sense of the dynamics at play, the CSIS China Power Project partnered with the Institute for National defense and Security Research (INDSR) to poll senior experts and former government officials from the United States and Taiwan on their assessments of what to expect in 2024 and how China’s approach toward Taiwan might change moving forward.  

The survey covered a range of issues, including assessments of China’s capabilities, the factors shaping Beijing’s thinking on using force against Taiwan, confidence in the United States and its allies to defend Taiwan, and the impacts of the Taiwan election and other developments on the trajectory of cross-Strait relations.  

Joining us to discuss the survey results are four experts: Dr. Chen Ming-chi, chief executive officer at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR) in Taiwan; Ms. Kristen Gunness, senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation; Mr. Ivan Kanapathy, adjunct professor for the Asian Studies Program at Georgetown University; and Admiral Lee Hsi-min, senior fellow at The Project 2049 Institute and former Chief of the General Staff of the Republic of China Armed Forces. 

Dr. Bonny Lin, director of the China Power Project and senior fellow for Asian Security at CSIS, will moderate the discussion. 

This event is made possible through the generous support of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the United States (TECRO).