Surveying the Experts: U.S. and Taiwan Views on China's Approach to Taiwan

The year 2024 will be crucial for Taiwan, cross-strait relations, and U.S.-Taiwan relations. On January 13, Taiwan elected William Lai to be its next president, setting the stage for heightened tensions between Beijing and Taipei. As the world looks to 2024 and beyond, there are critical questions about what kind of actions China might take to coerce Taiwan or force unification. Might China quarantine or blockade Taiwan, or would Beijing invade? Under what conditions would Beijing take various actions, and how capable is China? What approach should Taiwan, the United States, and its allies pursue? How do certain geopolitical developments change Beijing’s calculus? 

To make sense of these questions and better understand key trends in China’s approach to Taiwan, the CSIS China Power Project surveyed leading experts and former officials from the United States and Taiwan. The results of this survey provide valuable insights into areas of convergence and divergence in how U.S. and Taiwan experts evaluate China’s approach to Taiwan. This report summarizes the results of the survey and analyzes their implications.

This report is made possible by general support to CSIS. No direct sponsorship contributed to this report.